Destiny? Or Luck? Or Beer?

You know the drill right? It doesn’t matter how insane the odds are, the plucky protagonist will win out in the end? Heck, Hollywood has been churning these movies out forever (Rocky Balboa, John McClane, Jason Bourne, Ethan Hunt, ….) and doesn’t show any signs of slowing down. I mean, yes, it’s now turning into Teams of Protagonists (Ethan Hunt and Friends, Marvel movies,…), but the underlying point is pretty much the same — Impossible Odds + Grit = Success.

The thing is, this doesn’t work as a strategy! Survivor bias is a powerful force for myth-making, and needs to be treated as such. Oh yes, we should use myths to appreciate the virtues of hard work, focus, and dedication, but we should not, ever, assume that it is the reason for success.

Think about the real world, about all the people you know. In particular, think of all the people that should have made it but didn’t (if it helps, go look at your yearbook to remind yourself!). And now look at all the stories that you told yourself as to why they didn’t succeed.
• “Yeah, Alice, she was on track to make the Olympic team, but she cut her hand slicing a bagel the day before the trials. Bad luck there!”
• “Wow, did you hear about Bob? His company folded because the entire product team got the flu and they missed the deadline! Terrible luck, eh?”

However, the narrative changes completely if they succeed.
• If Alice hadn’t cut her hand, we’d be talking about the lifetime of training that got her into the Olympic team during the broadcast.
• If Bob would have been profiled in Forbes as the next wunderkind.

The thing is, it’s actually worse than the above. We actually end up rationalizing the above in to personal failings.
• “Alice should have been more careful”.
• “Bob should have split his team up”.
Whatever.
The point being that we, as humans, are incredibly good at taking random events and ascribing meaning to them. While this may have been good in the past (“Stripy shadows? Or tiger? Doesn’t matter, RUN!”), the trait does not serve us well now.

We should absolutely promote the merits of skill, mental toughness, hard work, tenacity, and talent. But we should also be equally aware (and self-aware!) of the role that luck plays in success!

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