The Story of Jobs and Infrastructure in Downtown Dallas

Build it…and they will not come, but they will go somewhere.

A few years back a fellow Coalition for a New Dallas member found a study by a Harvard Professor John Kain critiquing studies in the 1970’s and 1980’s that were used to justify rail investment in Dallas. While his critique, that rail investment wouldn’t create the kind of job growth in downtown that was suggested, I found the data even more profound than simply viewed simply through the lens of transit investment.

The data he referenced essentially laid out multiple scenarios: 1) if no rail nor highways were built, 2) if either rail or highways were built, or 3) if both rail and highways were invested in, how many jobs would be created in downtown Dallas.

This is a lesson in how data is warped, skewed, concocted, and/or concealed in order to get the outcomes whoever is presenting the data wants from the decision-makers to whom the data is being presented (many of which won’t have the time, experience, nor expertise to challenge said data from “the experts”).

The first data point(s) worth paying attention to are the dots in blue, existing jobs by year in downtown Dallas. These are from the studies cited by Professor Kain and what should jump out is that the number of jobs in downtown Dallas hovered around 100,000 give-or-take from the 1950’s to about 1990.

While these data points throughout time are all we have to go on, we can pretty much presume from historical growth patterns and Dallas’ population growth that jobs in downtown Dallas likely rose from something below 10,000 in 1880 when the population of the city was only about 10,000 and rose steadily until about 1950 when jobs in downtown Dallas likely peaked and plateaued around 110,000.

The planners told us if we invested in neither highways nor rail, we can expect measly job growth in downtown Dallas. Frowny face.

But, if we chose one over the other, we would get more job growth in downtown.

But, if we were very wise and handsome and charming and all the good things and chose BOTH highways and transit to invest in, job growth in downtown Dallas would go to the moon just like Crypto-currency.

Well, like crypto-currency the truth is something other than than the promise. The gray dots were added by me to a database I created using the studies cited by Professor Kain so that I could call out Estimated Jobs from the Past (blue), Projected jobs for the then Future (orange), and Actual Jobs from 2002 to 2019 within the CBD.

As you can see, downtown Dallas has essentially flat-lined in job growth despite the region continuing to grow rapidly. Unfortunately, it is growing rapidly away from downtown and points south meaning few new opportunities in the area, but plenty of driving to do to access said opportunity.

Of course, these data points are strictly about job growth rather than other considerations, but it was apparently what decision-makers wanted to hear and thus both highways and transit were built (and I would argue, by doing so the highways undermined the transit investments — meaning spend double to get zero benefit).

Today, we have different needs to consider so we need different data points. But, we still need a healthy vibrant downtown as we do opportunities for affordable and attainable housing, particularly in areas close to jobs and transit, making downtown ideal. Of course, the economics do not really pencil to deliver housing at less than market rates unless we create new land out of public right-of-way where a highway sits so the market can bake the land price into their pro forma along with the public’s expectation for public good (such as affordable housing) as part of a transparent bidding process.

So while job growth may not be our primary goal for downtown, vibrancy is, and new housing will drive demand for new jobs and services in the area. So it is still a useful metric for downtown health, one we’re currently failing due to the transportation investments of the past.

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